Global
Will the US invade Iran by June 30, 2026?
30 Jun 2026
Forecast YES
20%
Stable
Volume €289.3Liquidity €110Participants 0Quiet window
Trust layer
How this market is verified
Global geopolitics market that resolves YES only if the US clearly begins a military invasion of Iranian territory before the deadline.
Last market update15 May 2026, 11:23697h ago
Source packPrimary + fallback
Operator reviewReviewed
FreshnessReview before launch
Resolution pathPrimary source at close
Source packHierarchy and fallback evidence
Primary sourceOfficial statements from the White House, US Department of Defense, or the Iranian government
Fallback sourceReuters/AP reporting explicitly confirming a US invasion of Iranian territory is underway
The primary source controls resolution unless it is unavailable or materially ambiguous.
Resolution rulesYES, NO, and VOID criteria
YESSettles YES if the named source confirms the stated outcome by the resolution window.
NOSettles NO if the stated outcome is not confirmed by the eligible source window.
VoidVoid if there are only airstrikes, missile attacks, naval clashes, proxy actions, or conflicting reports without a clear US invasion of Iranian territory by close.
Review statusTiming, status, and evidence trail
Trading closes30 Jun 2026, 20:59
Resolution target1 Jul 2026, 10:00
Market statusOpen for trading
Expected pathPrimary source at close